By Michael S. Derby
(Reuters) -Americans grew more worried about the economic outlook in February even as their expectations of the future path of inflation were little changed, a report on Monday from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said.
According to the bank’s latest Survey of Consumer Expectations, inflation a year from now is seen at 3.1%, up a hair from January’s 3% reading, while the projected level of inflation three and five years from now was unchanged relative to January at 3%. The Fed wants inflation at 2%.
The bank’s relatively calm outlook for inflation contrasted, however, with expectations of accelerating price increases for food, rent, gasoline, college and medical costs, as well as a year-ahead expected rise in home prices of 3.3%. Uncertainty over the inflation outlook also rose. The bank’s data contrasts to a degree with other recent reports showing notable gains in expectations for future price rises.
The New York Fed report noted that “households expressed more pessimism about their year-ahead financial situations in February, while unemployment, delinquency, and credit access expectations deteriorated notably,” even as respondents to the survey – responses were collected over the course of last month – ramped up spending expectations.
The survey found that while households rate their current financial situation as little changed, the year-ahead outlook “deteriorated considerably” with those who expect a worse situation at its highest reading since November 2023.
According to the report, the expected probability that unemployment will be higher a year from now rose to its highest level since September 2023, as respondents marked down the prospects a person would voluntarily quit a job and said finding new work would be harder.
On the financial front, the survey found assessments credit access relative to a year ago is now more difficult, while expectations of the probability of missing a future debt payment ticked up to the highest level since April 2020, driven by the responses of those under 40 and those without a college degree.
The New York Fed report lands in a climate where anxiety over the future of the economy has been rising as the Trump administration presses forward erratically with an agenda of massive trade tariffs on the nation’s major trading partners.
Economists widely believe these policies, to the extent they are maintained, could drive up inflation from levels Fed officials already think are too high, while depressing growth and driving up future unemployment.
Central bankers and private sector forecasters are facing major challenges in forecasting what lies ahead, but a survey from Reuters shows rising recession fears for the whole of North America.
The outlook presents a major conundrum for the Federal Reserve, which as of December had been expecting to lower its interest rate target further this year. Now, Fed officials may face an environment of rising inflation and a weakening economy, each potentially arguing for opposing interest rate choices.
On Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said it remains to be seen how the tariffs, which are effectively import taxes on Americans, will feed through to inflation, as he mapped out how price pressures could be forced up.
Inflation expectations data is closely watched by the Fed because policymakers believe it exerts a strong influence on where price pressures stand now. In comments last week, some Fed officials discounted other reports showing deteriorating expectations.
Speaking on Tuesday, New York Fed President John Williams said of data pointing to a rise in expected inflation that it was mostly about short-term worry rather than long-term concerns.
Meanwhile, on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he still sees the Fed on track for rate cuts, also said he discounts survey data in favor of market pricing, where real money is on the line. “The markets are not pricing in any serious long-term inflation” and to the extent they’re taking on board the impact of tariffs, markets are “treating it as a price level effect” that’s not that big, he said.
(Reporting by Michael S. Derby; Editing by Andrea Ricci)
