At roughly $41.82 as of Wednesday’s close, Nike just touched its lowest price since 2014. The 52-week high was $80.17. That’s a 48% haircut from peak to trough. Fiscal year 2025 revenue fell 9.8% year over year to $46.3 billion. Tariffs hit the business for roughly $1 billion in additional costs. China is still struggling. The CEO is midway through a painful structural reset, and the CFO just announced he’s leaving in August.

And yet: among the 35 analysts covering the stock, 12 recommend a Strong Buy, and the average analyst price target sits near $58 per share. That implies roughly 39% upside from current levels.

That’s not a consensus bet on a quick recovery. That’s a market that has almost given up on a near-term catalyst and is just hoping the brand survives long enough for the turnaround to land. The question is whether June 30’s earnings change any of that.

What the Numbers Say

Nike will release Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on June 30 after the close. Analysts expect earnings of approximately 11 cents per share and revenue of around $10.85 billion. That’s the bar. It’s not high. EPS would be down roughly 21% from the year-ago quarter. Revenue would be off about 2% from Q4 FY2025’s $11.1 billion.

There’s something the consensus may be underweighting, though. Nike has disclosed that its Q4 report will include an unexpected gain from tariff refunds that were not included in earlier forecasts. The context matters here: in February 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the Trump administration’s IEEPA-based tariffs were unlawful, opening the door for importers like Nike to recover duties paid. Nike has said it paid roughly $1 billion in those tariffs. The company now anticipates a $1 billion benefit landing in this report. That refund changes the EPS math in ways the Street has not fully reflected.

Worth noting: a class action lawsuit was filed in May by consumers alleging Nike raised footwear prices by $5 to $10 and apparel by $2 to $10 to offset those tariff costs, and is now seeking to keep the refund without returning the overcharges. No settlement exists. This is a real legal overhang that options traders and shareholders should track going into the call.

The company has exceeded Wall Street’s EPS estimates in all of its last four quarters. Most recently, fiscal Q3 2026 earnings came in at $0.35 per share, beating the analyst consensus of $0.29. Revenue reached $11.3 billion against expectations of $11.23 billion. The pattern of beating a low bar is well established. The real question isn’t whether Nike beats Q4 estimates. The question is what management says about the path forward into fiscal 2027.

Nike announced that David M. Denton, previously an executive at Pfizer, will join the company as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer effective August 17, replacing Matt Friend, who will step down at that time. Friend will participate in the Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings call on June 30 as planned. Denton’s first public appearance will be the next quarterly call. That’s an opportunity, not necessarily a risk.

Where the Business Actually Stands

The Win Now turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill is producing measurable, if uneven, progress. Nike Running grew over 20% in Q3 and drove double-digit growth across multiple regions. North America revenue grew 3%, with wholesale up 11% while Nike Direct was down 5%. Sell-through improved in February, and North America delivered positive growth in all channels for the first time in two years.

China is the problem that won’t resolve quickly. Management projected Greater China revenue would fall approximately 20% in Q4. Greater China inventory dollars declined mid-teens year over year and units were down more than 20%, reflecting deliberate sell-in management and marketplace cleanup. That’s painful in the near term, but it’s the right kind of pain. A clean marketplace positions the brand for a real demand recovery when sentiment shifts. Analysts currently expect Greater China revenue to land around $1.21 billion for Q4, which would represent roughly an 18% year-over-year decline.

The company expects gross margin expansion beginning in Q2 fiscal 2027, as tariff mitigation and recovery from transitory Win Now impacts take effect, and expects Q4 to show sequential gross margin improvement. The tariff refund in Q4 is a preview of that relief arriving earlier than expected.

For fiscal 2026, analysts project the company’s EPS at $1.49, down 31% from $2.16 in fiscal 2025. That’s the trough. For fiscal 2027, EPS is expected to recover roughly 24% to approximately $1.85. The question earnings needs to answer is whether the FY2027 trajectory is still intact.

The Options Picture and Defined-Risk Framework

Options traders heading into this report are pricing a significant post-earnings swing. After the Q3 guidance disappointed on China, NKE fell 15.51% in the session that followed. That kind of historical volatility keeps implied volatility elevated heading into every subsequent report. The options market is expecting a major move. The direction depends entirely on what management says about FY2027.

For traders who believe the tariff refund provides a positive surprise and management delivers even modestly constructive FY2027 guidance, a defined-risk bull structure using shorter-dated calls captures that scenario without the full binary risk of owning shares into the announcement. BofA has maintained a Neutral rating with a $55 price target, citing ongoing caution around wholesale sell-through trends and risks that prolonged weakness could lead to elevated discounting or reduced reorders. For those who share that cautious view, defined-risk put spreads offer downside participation if guidance disappoints again.

Bull case: the tariff refund beats, China’s decline comes in shallower than the 20% guide, management offers constructive FY2027 color, and the stock moves 20 to 25% toward analyst targets. Bear case: wholesale momentum stalls, China deteriorates beyond guidance, and the market loses patience with the timeline. Neutral case: Nike roughly matches guidance, delivers nothing new on the recovery, and the stock drifts sideways. At this price and multiple, that’s actually the least damaging outcome for patient investors.

The Longer Case for Patient Capital

Nike has delivered 24 consecutive years of dividend increases and has paid dividends continuously since 1988. The annual dividend run rate is $1.64 per share, yielding close to 3.9% at current prices. The payout ratio now exceeds 100% of earnings, which is a legitimate concern for income investors, and one that the recovery trajectory needs to address. The bull case rests on brand strength, fiscal 2025 free cash flow of $3.3 billion, and a wholesale channel reset that may finally be gaining traction.

The balance sheet carries $8 billion in long-term debt against $7.5 billion in cash as of fiscal year 2025. Not distressed, but not pristine. The brand’s global franchise across running, basketball, football, and Jordan is not impaired. What’s impaired is the execution layer: channel mix, China exposure, and the cost structure left over from prior management’s mistakes. Nike is also a primary sponsor of multiple national teams at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs through July 19 in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. That marketing investment won’t show up in Q4, but it’s part of the longer brand rebuild.

Nike is a structurally durable brand in the middle of a painful but deliberate reset, now trading at its lowest price since 2014. At the Q4 earnings report on June 30, watch Greater China revenue against the guided approximately 20% decline. A shallower drop signals the marketplace cleanup is tracking ahead of schedule and is the most direct catalyst for a meaningful move higher.

The market has priced in a reset that never ends. The business is telling a different story, slowly, quarter by quarter. Five days from now, earnings gets a chance to start closing that gap. Or confirming it.