MILAN (Reuters) -U.S. tariffs of 30% on European Union goods could shave up to 0.8% off Italy’s gross domestic product in 2027, the country’s main business lobby said on Monday, as transatlantic trade negotiations continued.
President Donald Trump has threatened 30% tariffs on EU imports starting August 1, but his trade chief Howard Lutnick said on Sunday there was “plenty of room” for an agreement with European counterparts.
If 30% tariffs are confirmed, and assuming no countermeasures from the EU, Italy’s GDP would take a 0.25% hit this year, rising to 0.59% in 2026 and 0.82% in 2027, Confindustria’s research unit said.
Italy’s main exports to the U.S. include machinery, pharmaceuticals, cars and food products such as olive oil, pasta, cheese and wine.
In a separate report, professional services group EY issued even bleaker forecasts, predicting 30% tariffs would shave 1.4% off Italy’s GDP for 2025-2026, effectively cutting to zero expected growth for the period.
Last month, national statistics agency Istat forecast GDP growth of 0.6% this year and 0.8% in 2026.
Italy’s business lobby last week said the only acceptable U.S tariff would be zero as EU exports are already penalised by a depreciating dollar. The U.S. currency has lost more than 12% against the euro since the start of the year.
($1 = 0.8593 euros)
(Reporting by Sara Rossi, editing by Alvise Armellini and Christina Fincher)
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