By Gabriel Burin
BUENOS AIRES, Jan 16 (Reuters) – Argentina’s economy is set to grow at a slightly slower pace this year and in 2027, a Reuters poll of economists showed on Friday, with a lot hinging on a potential comeback to debt markets currently closed to the serial defaulter.
Inflation, which has eaten away at the living standards of Argentines for many years, is expected to decelerate, but linger in the double-digit area and be somewhat higher than was expected in a quarterly poll taken in October.
The median forecast for gross domestic product growth is 3.0% this year and in 2027 after an expected 4.3% increase in 2025, according to estimates from 25 economists polled in the January 12-16 period.
The highest GDP growth call for this year was 5% and the lowest was 1.6%, reflecting the most optimistic view on President Javier Milei’s reform drive and worries about their impact on the real economy, respectively.
Inflation as measured by the annual change in the Consumer Price Index is predicted to moderate to an average 25.3% in 2026 compared to an average 44.5% in 2025.
The expected 25.3% rate is down from the 31.5% reported in December of last year, but above a median forecast of 23.7% in an October poll, as the downtrend in price increases is limited by sticky services inflation.
Still, the headline rate has fallen sharply from a peak of 237% in 2024, when Milei began his term with a vow to “chainsaw” runaway spending.
An intensification of austerity steps this year and the possible foray into global capital markets are set to further push Argentina’s shift to an economic model based on commodity exports, analysts said.
Milei’s approach has already caused disruption by powering mining and energy investments in resource-rich provinces while manufacturing activity in populous metropolitan areas collapses.
“In 2026, agriculture, mining, and the financial sector are projected to perform well,” said Marcos Cohen Arazi, an economist at Fundacion Mediterranea’s IERAL institute.
“Meanwhile commercial activity, tourism, manufacturing, and construction are expected to perform weaker, although with some improvement compared to 2025.”
TAPPING INTERNATIONAL DEBT MARKETS
Regaining access to international debt markets that Argentina has been shut out from since 2018 will be crucial for the country’s economic prospects. At the end of 2025, Argentina’s central bank said the country would seek to do so in order to refinance its maturities.
This move would bolster confidence and extend a calm period for the local peso currency, allowing room for inflation to fall further.
“The key is at least being able to place debt in international markets to cover principal payments due in the first half of the year,” said Claudio Caprarulo, an economist and director at Analytica.
“We project the government will be able to issue debt, although the volume and interest rate will depend on the conditions at that time.”
Officials hope the sovereign risk premium will soon fall to levels consistent with an interest coupon under 10% that would be acceptable for a foreign-law bond deal, in line with local law debt conditions.
But this scenario requires solid proof that Milei’s reforms are generating sustainable reserve accumulation by fixing Argentina’s current account deficit to cut its dependence on the International Monetary Fund.
In a sign that a foreign bond transaction may be closer, the IMF welcomed this week the government’s efforts to rebuild foreign exchange reserves.
But some analysts remain cautious.
“The question is whether supply of U.S. dollars (from trade) will be enough or not,” said Sebastian Menescaldi, associate director at EcoGo. “If it is insufficient, there will be complications with the currency scheme.”
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
(Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Ross Finley and Paul Simao)
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