Another “Volatile Week” as The Wall Street headlined. The tenuous 10–year Treasury note yield climbed up near and then over 5% as the Fed’s .25 percent increase boosted interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell again for the week, its third straight week of decline. Borrowing costs creep up as rates are affecting every type of indebtedness. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments coined the bond dilemma saying: “Bond yields fell yesterday (Thursday) – stocks liked it. Bond yields are going up today (Friday) – stocks don’t like it.” Friday’s indexes were ‘topsy-turvey’ as investors were concerned about the impact of the rate increase stalling any possibility of a rally. The PHLX Semiconductor index added 2.8% as trading into artificial intelligence stocks was the lone sector of buying interest. Even the reporting of major U.S. companies’ higher earnings and large hiring numbers could not ‘move the market.’ Brent Crude backed off from a high of $108 a barrel to $104 a barrel with pump prices falling just below $5 a gallon. Bitcoin rallyed, cresting $80,000 boosting cryptocurrencies and related crypto stocks across–the–board.
Monday’s market opened with technology, AI and semiconductor stocks in popular demand. Even the ‘dormant’ Magnificent Seven awakened with 6 of 7 included issues sporting solid gains for the session. The indexes also thrived, all rising significantly. The heavy–tech Nasdaq Composite spiked 2.3%, hitting a new record high. The bread and butter S&P 500 added 1.5% while the blue–chip Dow Jones Industrial Average picked up 363 points. Oil prices continued to edge lower as Brent Crude dropped 4.5% to $95.78 a barrel, giving reprieve to surging gasoline pump prices. The 10–year Treasury note yield backed off to 4.962%, affected by the recent rate hike. Crypto leader Bitcoin continued to rally, now trading above $86,000. Gold is stable trading near $4,300 a troy ounce while silver is trading near $64.00 a troy ounce. Platinum, the ‘forgotten’ precious metal is trading higher as industrial demand remains high at $1,740 a troy ounce.
The Financial Services sector took a hit on Tuesday as mounting concerns that Artificial Intelligence (AI) “will disrupt the industry.” Related stocks sold–off led by big banks, and financial services companies. Devin Ryan, head of financial services and fintech research at Citizens said; “A series of such launches in recent months has allowed a narrative to run that the world is changing and there’s more uncertainty as the world changes.” He adds, “that agents could move client money for tax–loss harvesting and other goals more efficiently, leaving less cash sitting around.” The 10–year Treasury note yield was a bit higher, closing at 4.966%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 185 points, while the robust Nasdaq was up 0.5% to another new record, driven by AI and semiconductor stocks. President Trump issued Iran an ultimatum Tuesday, “a lasting peace deal or an annihilation of the Islamic Republic.” He also made clear; “Iran will never have a nuclear weapon.” Market reaction was minimal as the indexes finished the day mixed. All three indexes lost momentum Wednesday, with the Dow losing 352 points. The Nasdaq dropped 1.1%, with the S&P 500 off 0.8%. The 10–year Treasury note yield surged up to 5.11%, a level not seen since 2007. Scott Kimball, chief investment officer for fixed income at Loop Capital Asset Management said; “Risk markets seem to be handling this fairly well. It really seems to be a rate market problem.” (referring to rising bond yields)
RUMBLINGS ON THE STREET
Keven Lerner, Truist Wealth, Barron’s – “Since the start of the modern Fed era in 1994, the S&P 500 declined during the one—and three month periods following the first interest rate hike in 5 of 6 completed cycles. However… stocks were higher 12 months later in 5 of 6 cycles, with an average gain of 9%.”
John Cochrane, Senior Fellow, Hoover Institute, Barron’s – “Inflation always and everywhere stems from the relationship between the monetary.”
Tom Kozlik, head of municipal strategy, Hilltop Securities, Barron’s – “I wouldn’t be dipping my toe in the water. I would be jumping in. These are some of the best yields we’ve seen in a generation.” (referring to the high bond yields)
