June 19, 2026
PLTR Is Down 27% in 2026. The Business Has Never Grown Faster.
85% revenue growth, a $7.65B full-year guide, and a defense backlog that keeps expanding.
There’s a strange thing happening with Palantir right now. The company just reported the fastest revenue growth since it went public in 2020. Wall Street firms are raising price targets into the $190 to $230 range. And the stock is down 27% since January.
PLTR closed at $128.47 on June 18. Its 52-week high is $207.52. That’s a $79 gap at a company where the underlying business is arguably accelerating.
Q1 2026 numbers: revenue of $1.63 billion, up 85% year over year, beating estimates of $1.54 billion. Adjusted EPS of $0.33 versus $0.28 expected. Net income roughly quadrupled to $870.5 million from $214 million a year earlier. After that quarter, management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $7.65 billion to $7.66 billion, implying approximately 71% annual growth and coming in well above the $7.27 billion Wall Street had penciled in. Q2 guidance came in at $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion, above the $1.68 billion consensus.
That’s not a company in trouble. That’s a company in acceleration.
Guess which tech stock is about to crash next?
No one believed Whitney Tilson when he predicted the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. Or when he went on 60 Minutes exposing a company of poisoning its own customers. (The stock fell nearly 80%.) Now he has a new warning about what’s REALLY around the corner for America’s most beloved tech companies.
Here’s the thing though. The selloff isn’t random. A broader rotation out of software stocks has weighed on the whole category, driven by fears that large AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI might compress older software businesses. CEO Alex Karp has pushed back directly on that framing, arguing Palantir sits in a fundamentally different position because it builds the operational layer on top of AI models, not the models themselves. The remaining performance obligations metric, a forward-looking revenue indicator, came in at $4.5 billion at the end of Q1, up 134% year over year from $1.9 billion a year ago. Total remaining deal value hit $11.8 billion, up 98% year over year. That’s not a company losing relevance.
The defense side of the business continues to expand in ways that don’t get enough attention. Palantir holds a $10 billion U.S. Army contract and a $448 million Navy deal. A 240.6 million pound UK Ministry of Defence contract runs through 2029. Ukraine launched its Brave1 Dataroom platform on Palantir infrastructure in January. The defense-AI-software convergence is the real story here, and Palantir sits at the center of it.
On the commercial side, the company added customers at a meaningful clip. Commercial customer count hit 1,007 for the trailing twelve months ended March 31, up 31% year over year. U.S. commercial revenue grew 133% in Q1 to $595 million. A new partnership with Google Cloud brings Palantir’s Foundry and AIP platforms to the Google Cloud Marketplace with deepened integrations into BigQuery and Gemini. That kind of distribution expansion matters for scaling commercial revenue beyond government work.
Palantir closed 206 deals at $1 million or more in Q1 alone, with 47 of those crossing the $10 million threshold. Most large B2B software companies would anchor an entire earnings release to a single deal that size. Palantir closed 47 of them in one quarter.
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The risk side of this
- The stock trades at a P/E above 144 even after the 27% decline. That’s not cheap, and any slowdown in growth would compress the multiple quickly.
- Insider share sales have picked up, which tends to create noise even when it doesn’t signal a fundamental problem.
- Palantir recently lost a government contract challenge in Switzerland, and some European governments are actively exploring moving away from U.S.-controlled platforms.
- The company is highly sensitive to AI spending sentiment. If institutional confidence in enterprise AI shifts, PLTR will feel it before most.
The analyst consensus is a Buy rating with a 12-month price target of $182.75, roughly 42% above where the stock sits today. That’s a wide gap between where the stock is trading and where the analysts who cover it most closely think it should be.
The question isn’t whether Palantir’s business is good. Q1 2026 made that case clearly. The question is whether the current discount to both analyst targets and its own 52-week high reflects a disconnection worth paying attention to, or whether the market is pricing in risks the numbers haven’t yet captured.
That answer probably shows up on August 10, when Q2 earnings land.
