By Alex Lawler, Olesya Astakhova and Ahmad Ghaddar
LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) -OPEC+ will likely raise oil output on Sunday but probably add less oil from October than in recent months as global demand might be slowing with the end of the driving season, OPEC+ sources said on Saturday.
OPEC+ has reversed its strategy of output cuts from April and has already raised quotas by about 2.5 million barrels per day, about 2.4% of world demand, to boost market share and under pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to lower oil prices.
But those increases have failed to significantly dent oil prices, which are trading near $66 a barrel supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, encouraging further production gains in rivals such as the United States.
Another output boost would mean OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world’s oil, would begin to unwind a second layer of cuts of about 1.65 million bpd, more than a year ahead of schedule.
Talks are focusing on unwinding that whole cut in gradual monthly increments and the group has reached an agreement in principle to raise output by at least 135,000 bpd from October, two sources said.
A third OPEC+ source the October’s hike could be closer to 200,000-350,000 bpd.
At their last meeting in August, OPEC+ raised production by 547,000 bpd for September.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia and other allies, will hold an online meeting on Sunday at 1230 GMT.
Brent crude futures settled at $65.50 a barrel on Friday, down 2.2%, pressured by a weak U.S. jobs report and expectations of an OPEC+ output hike. This is still up from a 2025 low of near $58 in April.
OPEC+’s hikes have fallen short of the pledged amounts because most members are pumping near capacity. As a result, only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are able to add more barrels into the market, analysts have said and data showed.
OPEC still has in place two layers of cuts – the 1.65 million bpd cut by eight members – and another 2 million bpd cut by the whole group in place until the end of 2026.
(Reporting by Olesya Astakhova, Alex Lawler, Ahmad Ghaddar and Dmitry Zhdannikov, editing by Alexandra Hudson and Nick Zieminski)
About the Author
